AbbVie (ABBV) Q1 2023: Skyrizi and Rinvoq Surge 46%+ as Humira Erosion Contained
AbbVie’s growth platform outpaced expectations in Q1, driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq’s double-digit expansion and resilient neuroscience and aesthetics results, offsetting anticipated Humira biosimilar erosion. Management increased full-year guidance, underscoring confidence in pipeline execution and diversified revenue streams. Investors should watch for ongoing pricing dynamics, regulatory milestones, and the durability of international aesthetics recovery as the Humira transition continues to unfold.
Summary
- Immunology Growth Platform Delivers: Skyrizi and Rinvoq’s momentum offsets Humira headwinds.
- Pipeline Execution Remains Central: Multiple regulatory and clinical catalysts ahead across core franchises.
- Guidance Raised on Portfolio Strength: Management signals confidence in long-term growth trajectory.
Business Overview
AbbVie is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with major revenue streams in immunology, oncology, neuroscience, and aesthetics. The company generates revenue through sales of prescription medicines, with flagship brands including Humira, Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Venclexta, Vraylar, Botox, and Juvederm. Its business is organized around five key therapeutic areas, with immunology and neuroscience as primary growth engines, and a significant presence in both the U.S. and international markets. The company’s strategy centers on innovative drug launches, expanded indications, and a robust R&D pipeline to offset patent expiry and biosimilar pressures.
Performance Analysis
AbbVie’s Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with total net revenues of $12.2 billion, surpassing guidance by $400 million. The quarter was defined by robust double-digit growth in Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which together are on track for over $11 billion in annual sales, and a notable uplift in neuroscience led by Vraylar and migraine therapies. Neuroscience net revenues outperformed guidance by nearly $200 million, prompting a full-year outlook increase for the segment.
Humira’s U.S. erosion, down 24.3% operationally, was in line with expectations and primarily price-driven, reflecting the anticipated biosimilar impact. The aesthetics business, while seeing U.S. softness, benefited from a faster-than-expected recovery in China and international markets, supporting a guidance raise for the segment. Oncology faced continued pressure on Imbruvica but was partially offset by Venclexta’s double-digit growth.
- Immunology Volume and Pricing Dynamics: Skyrizi and Rinvoq grew over 46% and 50% respectively, despite high single-digit price declines tied to new indication launches and rebate increases.
- Aesthetics International Upside: International aesthetics sales grew 7.8% operationally, with China and Japan driving the recovery, offsetting U.S. filler weakness.
- Neuroscience Acceleration: Vraylar sales rose 31.3% operationally, supported by MDD approval, and migraine therapies (Ubrelvy, Qulipta) delivered over 45% growth.
Strong commercial execution and pipeline progress provided a buffer against Humira’s decline, supporting management’s decision to raise EPS and revenue guidance for the full year. The margin structure remained healthy, with adjusted operating margin at 45% of sales.
Executive Commentary
"We have successfully created a well-diversified portfolio with multiple growth platforms in highly attractive markets...our growth platform is demonstrating strong performance, exceeding our expectations. We are executing well across all aspects of our business and see numerous opportunities for our diverse portfolio to drive long-term growth."
Rick Gonzalez, Chairman and CEO
"We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.46, which is 10 cents above our guidance midpoint. Total net revenues were $12.2 billion, approximately $400 million ahead of our expectations...we are raising our full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance by 10 cents and now expect adjusted earnings per share between $10.72 and $11.12."
Rob Michael, Vice Chairman and President
Strategic Positioning
1. Immunology Leadership and Lifecycle Management
Skyrizi and Rinvoq, next-generation immunology assets, continue to reshape the standard of care across psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Their best-in-class efficacy and rapid uptake, especially in new indications, are central to AbbVie’s strategy for offsetting Humira’s patent expiry. Management emphasized the importance of volume-driven growth and broad access, even as high single-digit price declines are expected to moderate after this year’s wave of new indication launches.
2. Pipeline and Portfolio Diversification
AbbVie’s R&D pipeline remains a core differentiator, with upcoming regulatory milestones in immunology (Skyrizi for ulcerative colitis, Rinvoq in Crohn’s), oncology (Navitoclax, Teliso-V, ABBV400), and neuroscience (Qulipta, ABBV951). The company is actively exploring both internal innovation and external business development, particularly in immunology, to ensure future growth levers beyond the current portfolio.
3. Aesthetics Market Recovery and Expansion
International aesthetics growth is outpacing the U.S. as China’s rapid post-COVID recovery and Japan’s underpenetrated market drive upside. New product launches, such as Volux and SkinVeve, are expected to support long-term expansion. The company’s focus on injector training and consumer education in international markets underpins its strategy to reach over $9 billion in aesthetics sales by decade’s end.
4. Neuroscience Momentum
Vraylar and migraine therapies are emerging as significant contributors, with label expansions and DTC promotion fueling prescription growth. The neuroscience pipeline, including ABBV932 and collaborations with Calico, is being positioned for future indications in anxiety and neurodegenerative conditions.
5. Capital Allocation and M&A Discipline
AbbVie maintains flexibility for targeted acquisitions, signaling that despite high biotech valuations, it will pursue deals that deliver clear strategic and financial returns. Management sees continued freedom to operate in immunology, given the competitive landscape and current regulatory environment.
Key Considerations
This quarter’s results reflect AbbVie’s ability to manage through a major loss-of-exclusivity event while advancing its next generation of growth drivers. The company’s operational execution, particularly in immunology and neuroscience, is critical to maintaining momentum as Humira’s U.S. contribution wanes.
Key Considerations:
- Immunology Pricing Headwinds: High single-digit price declines for Skyrizi and Rinvoq are expected to moderate but remain a near-term margin drag.
- International Aesthetics Visibility: China’s recovery and Japan’s investment in training and education are driving upside, but U.S. demand remains sensitive to consumer confidence and inflation.
- Pipeline Milestone Density: Multiple late-stage readouts and regulatory decisions in 2023-2024 could structurally shift the growth profile.
- Humira Biosimilar Transition: Erosion remains price-led and predictable so far, but competitive intensity may rise as more biosimilars enter mid-year.
- Capital Allocation Optionality: Management signals ongoing appetite for external innovation, but discipline on deal terms and fit remains explicit.
Risks
AbbVie faces several risks, including greater-than-expected Humira erosion as additional biosimilars launch, sustained U.S. aesthetics weakness if macro headwinds persist, and uncertainty around future immunology pricing as payer and policy dynamics evolve. Pipeline setbacks or regulatory delays could disrupt the cadence of new launches, while potential legislative changes to rebate structures may alter competitive positioning in key franchises. Management’s guidance assumes continued operational outperformance and stable international trends, both of which require close monitoring.
Forward Outlook
For Q2 2023, AbbVie guided to:
- Net revenues of approximately $13.5 billion, including U.S. Humira erosion of 27%.
- Adjusted earnings per share between $2.90 and $3.00.
For full-year 2023, management raised guidance:
- Adjusted EPS of $10.72 to $11.12 (up $0.10 from prior guidance).
- Net revenues of approximately $52.4 billion (up $400 million).
Management highlighted several factors that shape the outlook:
- Continued strength in Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and neuroscience franchises, with volume-driven growth expected to outpace pricing headwinds.
- International aesthetics recovery, particularly in China, expected to sustain, while U.S. demand remains cautiously monitored.
Takeaways
AbbVie’s execution in Q1 demonstrates the resilience of its growth platform and its ability to manage through major patent expiries.
- Growth Engine Resilience: Skyrizi and Rinvoq’s rapid uptake and broadening indications are offsetting Humira’s decline, while neuroscience and aesthetics provide diversification.
- Pipeline and Portfolio Depth: Multiple late-stage readouts and regulatory events over the next year could unlock additional value, but also require flawless execution.
- Future Watchpoints: Investors should track immunology pricing normalization, the pace of international aesthetics growth, and the delivery of key pipeline milestones as determinants of AbbVie’s post-Humira growth trajectory.
Conclusion
AbbVie’s Q1 2023 results validate its multi-platform growth strategy, with strong commercial and pipeline execution providing a buffer against Humira’s anticipated decline. The company’s raised guidance and focus on innovation signal confidence, but investors should remain attentive to pricing trends, competitive dynamics, and the cadence of new product launches as the next phase of the transition unfolds.
Industry Read-Through
AbbVie’s performance underscores the importance of diversified portfolios and rapid lifecycle management for large biopharma players navigating major loss-of-exclusivity events. The resilience of next-generation immunology assets and the international recovery in aesthetics offer blueprints for peers facing similar patent cliffs. Persistent pricing pressure in high-volume biologics, coupled with payer and policy scrutiny, will likely shape future contract negotiations across the sector. The robust cadence of pipeline milestones—spanning immunology, oncology, and neuroscience—highlights the increasing need for R&D productivity and disciplined capital allocation as industry growth becomes more reliant on innovation and global expansion.