Kaspi (KSPI) Q2 2026: E-Commerce GMV Up 28% Drives 15% Revenue Growth Amid AI Assistant Launch
Kaspi delivered robust top-line growth led by a 28% constant currency surge in e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV), supported by expanding value-added services and strong consumer engagement. The launch of Kasper, an AI-powered personal shopping assistant, marks a strategic inflection point aimed at deepening customer experience and driving conversion efficiency. Despite margin pressures from elevated funding costs and fintech investments, Kaspi’s disciplined capital allocation and fintech expansion in Turkey position it for sustainable growth.
Summary
- E-Commerce Expansion Momentum: Rapid GMV growth and higher take rates reflect strengthening marketplace monetization.
- AI-Driven Customer Experience: Kasper personal assistant accelerates product discovery and purchase speed, enhancing transaction relevance.
- Fintech and Funding Dynamics: Deposit rate cuts signal easing cost pressures with fintech product rollouts set to fuel next-year growth.
Business Overview
Kaspi is a leading fintech and e-commerce platform operating primarily in Kazakhstan and Turkey. The company generates revenue through its marketplace, payments, and fintech segments, with e-commerce and value-added services such as delivery and advertising driving marketplace growth. Kaspi’s integrated super app ecosystem enables seamless consumer and merchant interactions, while its expanding fintech offerings include consumer loans, merchant financing, and savings products.
Performance Analysis
Kaspi’s reported revenue increased 15% year-over-year, driven predominantly by a 28% constant currency growth in e-commerce GMV, which constitutes a significant portion of the marketplace segment. The take rate rose by 110 basis points to 12.1%, fueled by rapid expansion in value-added services that grew 49% on a constant currency basis. This reflects Kaspi’s ability to monetize delivery and advertising offerings effectively, enhancing overall marketplace profitability despite currency headwinds from the Turkish Lira depreciation.
The payments segment sustained 13% growth in total payment volume (TPV), supported by integration with Apple Pay and Google Pay, which expanded international transaction volumes. However, the fintech segment’s loan portfolio grew 18% year-over-year with a shift toward longer-duration, higher-revenue loans, driving revenue growth of 23%. Elevated funding costs pressured margins, with deposit rates lowered recently to mitigate this headwind, although full benefits will materialize mostly in 2027.
- Marketplace Growth Driver: Kazakhstan’s vertical-focused e-commerce strategy, especially in e-grocery and electronics, is delivering strong consumer engagement and GMV expansion.
- Fintech Portfolio Mix Shift: Transition from short-term BNPL to longer-duration loans enhances revenue quality but maintains stable pricing and cost of risk.
- Currency and Margin Pressure: Turkish Lira depreciation and investments in fintech product development temper EBITDA growth to 5% despite revenue gains.
Overall, Kaspi is balancing aggressive marketplace expansion and fintech innovation with prudent cost management, setting the stage for improved profitability as macroeconomic conditions normalize.
Executive Commentary
"E-commerce is the area where we can add the most value by connecting merchants and consumers, and our take rate expansion through delivery and advertising confirms this strategy’s success."
Mikheil Lomtadze, CEO & Co-founder
"The recent deposit rate cut on our three-month savings product will start benefiting our funding costs significantly from late Q3, with full effects expected in 2027, supporting bottom-line improvement."
David Ferguson, Head of Investor Relations
Strategic Positioning
1. Deepening E-Commerce Engagement Through Vertical Focus
Kaspi’s marketplace growth in Kazakhstan is driven by a vertical-by-vertical approach, prioritizing high-potential categories such as e-grocery and electronics. This strategy enhances consumer engagement and profitability by tailoring the shopping experience and operational capabilities to specific product lines, thereby increasing purchase frequency and GMV.
2. AI Integration with Kasper Personal Assistant
The launch of Kasper, Kaspi’s AI-powered shopping assistant, represents a strategic leap in customer experience innovation. By enabling voice and text interactions that accelerate product discovery and add-to-cart processes by up to 50%, Kasper enhances transaction relevance and trust. This technology is highly scalable and leverages Kaspi’s rich data and compute infrastructure, positioning the company for future AI-driven service expansion across its super app.
3. Fintech Expansion and Capital Investment
Following the acquisition of Rabobank and banking license approval, Kaspi is building fintech capabilities in Turkey and Kazakhstan, focusing on consumer and merchant financing products. The $300 million capital investment underpins this expansion, enabling rollout of shopping loans, savings accounts, and other financial services that integrate closely with the e-commerce platform to drive long-term growth.
4. Currency and Macro Sensitivity Management
Kaspi navigates currency volatility and macroeconomic headwinds through prudent financial management, including adjusting deposit rates and managing product mix. The company expects funding cost pressures to ease as inflation and central bank rates decline, improving EBITDA margins in coming quarters.
5. Prioritizing Consumer Experience in Turkey
In Turkey, Kaspi emphasizes foundational improvements such as delivery speed and net promoter score over aggressive growth, aiming to build a loyal customer base. This measured approach is intended to establish a solid operational platform before scaling fintech and marketplace offerings.
Key Considerations
Kaspi’s Q2 performance underscores the complexity of balancing growth and profitability amid macroeconomic challenges and strategic investments. Investors should weigh the following:
- Marketplace Monetization: The expanding take rate driven by value-added services points to improved unit economics in e-commerce.
- AI as a Growth Catalyst: Early Kasper adoption metrics suggest meaningful potential to enhance conversion and customer satisfaction.
- Fintech Funding Dynamics: Deposit rate reductions will alleviate margin pressure but with a lag, implying cautious near-term earnings outlook.
- Geographic Strategy Divergence: Kazakhstan’s vertical growth contrasts with Turkey’s foundational focus, reflecting tailored market approaches.
- Currency Impact Risks: Continued Turkish Lira depreciation could weigh on reported results despite operational improvements.
Risks
Kaspi faces risks from currency fluctuations, particularly the Turkish Lira depreciation, which compresses reported revenue and earnings. Funding cost volatility remains a challenge, dependent on inflation and central bank policy trajectories. Execution risk exists in scaling fintech products in Turkey and maintaining consumer trust in AI-driven services. Regulatory changes in payments and lending could also impact growth and margins.
Forward Outlook
For Q3 2026, Kaspi expects:
- Marketplace GMV growth to accelerate beyond 15% year-over-year, driven by promotional events and product initiatives.
- TPV growth to moderate slightly to around 13%, with benefits from Apple Pay integration and easing inflation.
Full-year 2026 guidance remains unchanged:
- GMV growth around 20%.
- Average net loan portfolio growth of approximately 15%.
- EBITDA growth targeted near 15%, with margin improvement expected in the second half due to funding cost reduction.
Management highlights improving consumer engagement, fintech product rollouts, and AI integration as key drivers for the remainder of the year and into 2027.
Takeaways
Kaspi is successfully leveraging its integrated ecosystem to accelerate e-commerce growth while strategically deploying AI and fintech innovations to deepen customer relationships and diversify revenue streams.
- Marketplace Strength: Sustained double-digit GMV growth and rising take rates validate Kaspi’s focus on value-added services and vertical specialization.
- AI Investment Payoff: Kasper’s early adoption and performance metrics suggest a scalable, cost-efficient tool to enhance purchase conversion and customer trust.
- Funding Cost Transition: Deposit rate cuts signal the beginning of margin recovery, but full benefits will materialize primarily in 2027, warranting cautious near-term margin outlook.
Conclusion
Kaspi’s Q2 2026 results reflect strong operational execution amid macroeconomic challenges, with e-commerce growth and AI innovation driving its strategic trajectory. The company’s fintech expansion and funding cost management position it well for margin improvement and sustainable growth in the coming years.
Industry Read-Through
Kaspi’s integration of AI into e-commerce and fintech highlights a broader industry trend toward personalized, data-driven customer experiences that enhance transaction efficiency. The company’s approach to monetizing value-added services within marketplaces offers a blueprint for balancing growth with profitability in emerging markets. Moreover, Kaspi’s experience with funding cost volatility underscores the importance of dynamic capital management in fintech platforms, a lesson relevant to peers navigating inflationary and currency risks globally.