Namib Minerals (NAMM) 2025: Adjusted EBITDA Rises 18% Amid Production Challenges and Growth Investments
Namib Minerals delivered strong adjusted EBITDA growth despite a 33% decline in gold production, reflecting the resilience of its How Mine asset and disciplined cost control. The company is advancing a major milling capacity expansion and progressing Red Wing Mine’s dewatering phase, positioning for a production rebound and margin improvement in 2026. Capital allocation remains conservative with a focus on non-dilutive funding to support growth while protecting shareholder value.
Summary
- Operational Resilience: How Mine’s strong gold price environment offset lower production volumes, sustaining profitability above 40% gross margin.
- Growth Execution: Progress on milling capacity expansion and Red Wing dewatering underpins a clear path to higher production and improved unit costs.
- Capital Discipline: Management emphasizes phased, non-dilutive funding strategies to finance brownfield restarts while maintaining balance sheet flexibility.
Business Overview
Namib Minerals is an African-focused gold producer and developer operating primarily through its flagship How Mine in Zimbabwe. The company generates revenue by mining and selling gold, with key segments including its ongoing operations at How Mine and development projects such as Red Wing and Mazowe Mines. Namib aims to build a scalable, capital-efficient mining platform by expanding production capacity and advancing brownfield assets.
Performance Analysis
In 2025, Namib Minerals produced approximately 25,000 ounces of gold, down 33% year-over-year due to underground development transitions at How Mine. Despite this volume decline, revenue remained stable at $82.6 million, nearly flat with 2024’s $85.9 million, driven by a 44% increase in the average realized gold price to $3,156 per ounce. This price uplift was critical in sustaining a gross margin of 41.4%, underscoring the quality of the How Mine asset amid production headwinds.
Cost control was a notable strength, with total production costs falling 4% to $37 million. However, fixed costs spread over fewer ounces resulted in a higher cash cost per ounce of $1,653, up from $1,150 in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $29 million, reflecting operational leverage from the gold price and disciplined expense management. Capital expenditures increased to $12.4 million, focused on shaft deepening, underground development, and equipment upgrades at How Mine, signaling peak investment intensity ahead of expected production recovery.
- Volume and Price Dynamics: Production decline offset by strong gold price maintained revenue and margin stability.
- Cost Structure Impact: Fixed cost base elevated unit costs but disciplined spending limited absolute cost growth.
- Cash Flow and Investment: Operating cash flow of $13.8 million supports ongoing capital projects with normalized sustaining capital expected in 2026.
The financial results reveal a business navigating short-term production challenges through strategic investment and cost discipline, setting a foundation for improved operational performance in 2026.
Executive Commentary
"2025 was a year of disciplined progress as we executed against our strategy to stabilize operations, increase production capacity, and expand our resource base. We remain confident in the strategic direction of the company and in the value creation potential of our asset base."
Tulani Sikwila, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer
"Our priority at How Mine remains operational optimization and incremental improvement, including tighter grade control and stronger operating discipline underground, to support more predictable production and cost performance over time."
Tulani Sikwila, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer
Strategic Positioning
1. Production Capacity Expansion at How Mine
Namib Minerals is advancing a 36% milling capacity increase at How Mine, from 40,500 to 55,000 tonnes per month, with commissioning expected in the second half of 2026. This expansion is designed to drive higher throughput, reduce unit costs through operating leverage, and support production growth toward 28,000 to 31,500 ounces in 2026. The project includes procurement and installation of key equipment, reflecting the company’s commitment to enhancing asset productivity.
2. Structured Development of Red Wing Mine
The Red Wing Mine restart is progressing through an eight-month dewatering phase initiated in January 2026, with significant water volumes pumped and water levels lowered as planned. Namib emphasizes a phased and technically rigorous approach, moving sequentially from dewatering to feasibility studies and then mine development. This methodical process aims to mitigate execution risk and build a sustainable, larger-scale operation with improved cost profiles.
3. Capital Allocation Discipline and Funding Strategy
Management is prioritizing capital efficiency and shareholder value protection by pursuing non-dilutive or minimally dilutive funding sources, including engagement with development finance institutions. The estimated capital requirement for Red Wing and Mazowe restarts ranges from $300 million to $400 million, to be deployed in phases aligned with project milestones. This approach balances growth ambitions with financial prudence and balance sheet flexibility.
4. Leadership Strengthening and Governance
The appointment of Tulani Sikwila as CEO and Antonio Nieto as Vice President of Technical Services enhances operational and technical leadership, supporting execution of brownfield restarts and exploration initiatives. Searches for CFO and COO roles are ongoing, reflecting a focus on building a robust leadership team capable of managing growth and operational complexities.
5. Resource Base Expansion and Exploration Focus
Exploration success at How Mine has expanded viable ore deposits and improved long-term asset outlook. Conversely, the company has strategically exited exploration licenses in the Democratic Republic of Congo to concentrate capital and management bandwidth on higher-return opportunities. This selective approach underscores disciplined capital allocation and focus on core assets.
Key Considerations
Namib Minerals’ 2025 results highlight a company balancing near-term production challenges with strategic investments and financial discipline to position for sustainable growth. Key considerations include:
- Production Recovery Trajectory: The timing and success of milling expansion and Red Wing restart will be pivotal for returning to higher gold output and improving unit economics.
- Cost Structure Leverage: Fixed costs currently elevate per-ounce cash costs; scaling production is essential to unlock margin expansion.
- Capital Raising Risks: While management targets non-dilutive funding, securing $300 to $400 million in phased capital remains a material execution risk.
- Commodity Price Sensitivity: Gold price volatility influences revenue and profitability, with geopolitical events such as Middle East conflict causing short-term fluctuations.
- Leadership Continuity: Recent executive appointments and ongoing searches signal a commitment to strengthening governance and operational capabilities.
Risks
Key risks include potential delays or cost overruns in the Red Wing dewatering and restart process, challenges in securing capital on favorable terms, and gold price volatility impacting revenue and margins. Political and social risks inherent in Zimbabwe’s operating environment also pose uncertainties. The company’s ability to execute its expansion projects while maintaining financial discipline will be critical to mitigating these risks.
Forward Outlook
For 2026, Namib Minerals guides production of 28,000 to 31,500 ounces of gold, an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) range of $2,400 to $2,700 per ounce, and adjusted EBITDA between $50 million and $62 million, based on a gold price assumption of $4,500 per ounce.
- Production growth driven by milling capacity expansion and operational optimization at How Mine.
- Normalization of unit costs as production scales and sustaining capital expenditure stabilizes at $5 million to $6 million annually.
Management expects to complete feasibility studies at Red Wing and Mazowe within 12 to 18 months and continues to evaluate funding options aligned with project milestones.
Takeaways
Namib Minerals’ 2025 performance underscores its resilience amid operational transitions and its strategic focus on growth through capital-efficient expansions and brownfield restarts. Investors should monitor:
- Production and Margin Inflection: The successful commissioning of expanded milling capacity and progress on Red Wing will be critical inflection points for volume and margin improvement.
- Capital Strategy Execution: The company’s ability to secure phased, non-dilutive funding without diluting shareholder value will shape its growth trajectory and risk profile.
- Leadership and Operational Execution: Strengthened leadership and disciplined operational improvements at How Mine provide a foundation for predictable performance and value creation.
Conclusion
Namib Minerals demonstrated strong adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025 despite production headwinds, supported by a robust gold price and disciplined cost management. The company’s focused investments in capacity expansion and brownfield restarts, combined with prudent capital allocation, position it for a meaningful operational step-up in 2026. Execution risks remain, but management’s clear strategic priorities and leadership enhancements provide a solid platform for sustainable value creation.
Industry Read-Through
Namib Minerals’ experience reflects broader trends in the gold mining sector, where companies face production volatility due to underground development and resource transitions but benefit from elevated gold prices supporting margins. The emphasis on phased, non-dilutive funding and disciplined capital deployment signals a cautious approach increasingly favored in mining amid capital market uncertainties. Other mid-tier miners can draw lessons on balancing operational optimization with growth investments and the importance of leadership depth in navigating complex restart projects in emerging markets.